Coffee Reaches New Heights as TEPA Tariff Window Opens

Coffee shipments to Switzerland jumped 54% in the first three months after TEPA's October implementation, rising from $16.2 million in the equivalent quarter of 2024 to $25.1 million—evidence that zero-duty access under TEPA is reshaping trade flows at the product level.

This gain ranks coffee among the fastest-movers in TEPA's opening phase. Switzerland and Norway hold strong demand for high-quality coffee, and TEPA provides the most favorable market access to Indian coffees in the EFTA market. The agreement has removed the single largest barrier to Indian coffee exports: EFTA member countries imported coffee valued at USD 175 million annually, representing about 3% of global coffee imports.

Price realization has risen sharply. In the post-TEPA period, average unit export price per kilogram increased to $6.77 in 2024–25 versus $5.93 in 2023–24—a 14% premium that reflects both improved market positioning and reduced friction costs. Tata Coffee, a subsidiary of the Tata Group and India's largest coffee manufacturer and top exporter, produces green coffee beans, instant coffee, tea and pepper. The company is among the primary beneficiaries of this shift.

Cashews Explode: 232% Growth Signals Market Repositioning

Cashew nuts show the most dramatic post-TEPA rebound in the trade data. Shipments to Switzerland climbed 232% over the same quarterly comparison, from $849,700 to $2.82 million. Demand for cashew kernels and other nuts in EFTA is large, and India can scale exports.

This product class sat idle during the pre-agreement period—tariff barriers limited margins on smaller shipments. Removal of duties has suddenly made Switzerland economically viable as an entry point to European specialty nut markets. Switzerland and Norway together account for over 99 percent of India's agri-exports to the EFTA region and have removed import duties on fresh grapes, nuts, seeds, and processed vegetables.

India's market position remains concentrated among four core regions. The Agreement is expected to create opportunities for Indian states across sectors, including Maharashtra in grapes, Karnataka in coffee, Kerala in spices, Andhra Pradesh in seafood and the North Eastern States in horticulture. Small-holder cashew processors and exporters across Kerala and Goa—clustered in MSMEs that dominate the sector—now have direct tariff-free access to premium Alpine buyers.

Seafood Gains Ground: Frozen Shrimp and Emerging Prepared Crustaceans

Frozen shrimp and prawns doubled in value, rising from $470,565 to $974,197—a 107% increase. More significant, prepared and preserved crustaceans emerged as an entirely new export line post-TEPA, registering $377,572 in Q4 2025 after zero activity in the comparable period one year prior.

EFTA members including Iceland eliminated tariffs up to 10% on frozen, prepared and preserved shrimps, prawns, squid and cuttlefish, while Switzerland granted zero duty on fats and oils of fish other than liver oil. This is the beginning of what trade analysts expect will grow substantially. These marine products exports are expected to reach USD 3.50 million in coming years.

Andhra Pradesh's aquaculture cluster—accounting for roughly 70% of India's farmed shrimp production—now competes on equal footing with producers in Thailand and Vietnam within Swiss importing channels. The prepared crustacean category signals manufacturers are moving up the value chain, introducing processed, branded products rather than commodity frozen stock.

Oil-Seeds and Rice: Tariff Elimination Unlocks Dormant Supply

Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits registered the most explosive percentage gain of any product tracked: 23,276% growth, from $1,057 to $247,269. While the absolute value remains small, this signals the opening of an entirely new market segment previously uneconomical to service.

Husked rice shipments more than tripled to $305,211, up 227% from $93,327 in the prior-year quarter. Products such as basmati rice, guar gum, fresh fruits, vegetables, cashews, and millets benefit from tariff elimination, improving India's competitiveness against traditional suppliers. India's North Indian rice belt, concentrated in Punjab and Haryana, now competes without tariff friction against Vietnam and Thailand.

Sector-Wide Pattern: New Products Outpace Existing Trades

The tariff architecture under TEPA created a product reshuffling that favors new market entries over incremental growth on established flows. Aggregate trade to Switzerland rose just 0.2%—a near-flat year-on-year result masking vigorous product-level reallocation.

Overall, 51 products showed positive growth post-TEPA, while 3 products appeared entirely new in the trade ledgers. Cuttlefish and squid—frozen and dried—jumped 1,293% as the tariff preference unlocked a specialist frozen seafood export base. Industry sources attribute this to improved cold-chain investment and regulatory alignment between Indian exporters and Swiss importers now coordinating under the agreement's sanitary and phytosanitary provisions.

Jobs and Livelihoods: The Ground-Level Impact Across Indian States

The beneficiary sectors employ millions of workers across India's agricultural heartland. Based on sector multipliers for agricultural export processing and supply chains, the jump in coffee, cashew, and seafood exports is estimated to support approximately 2,250 direct jobs and 3,750 indirect positions across Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh.

Methodology note: These estimates apply sector multipliers (15 direct jobs and 25 indirect jobs per $100,000 in agricultural exports) to the incremental trade growth between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. The agricultural sector counts all processing, logistics, transport, and wholesale roles.

In Karnataka, coffee-producing districts like Chikmagalur and Kodagu rely on TEPA-enabled exports to sustain smallholder farming networks. Karnataka benefits specifically in coffee production under TEPA. An estimated 300–400 coffee processor units—95% of them MSMEs—now have active Swiss customer relationships, compared to a handful before October 2025.

Women constitute roughly 50% of the agricultural labor force across these sectors. In seafood processing plants in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, female workers form the majority of value-added labor (de-veining, portioning, freezing). The tariff reduction directly increases hours and steady-season employment for these workers, improving household income stability in coastal communities.

Cashew processing in Kerala employs an estimated 200,000 workers, predominantly women. TEPA's 232% export growth to Switzerland signals new processing capacity utilization and overtime hours at facilities that had operated below capacity. Factory workers—earning approximately $8–12 per day—see more consistent work schedules as European demand stabilizes under preferential tariff terms.

The TEPA Implementation Question: Are Exporters Mobilizing Quickly?

The first quarter of data reveals substantial product-level response, but utilization remains uneven. India's Commerce Secretary visited Switzerland in May 2026 and emphasized the importance of resolving implementation-related issues at an early stage to enable enterprises on both sides to fully utilize the Agreement.

Compliance with rules of origin requirements and CAROTAR documentation standards is creating friction for some smaller exporters unfamiliar with FTA certification procedures. Mid-sized exporters report that achieving Swiss import-compliance certifications remains a bottleneck, particularly in processed seafood and dairy-derived products where food safety traceability is mandatory.

For the agricultural sectors analyzed here, TEPA's tariff elimination operates as a demand-pull mechanism. Coffee roasters and nut importers in Switzerland and Norway have immediately adjusted sourcing, redirecting purchase orders toward India given the 0% duty entry point. The growth data reflects this rapid repricing of Indian supplies relative to traditional East African and Brazilian coffee origins.

Early Verdict: Beneficiaries Versus Laggards

Three product categories are responding fastest to TEPA's tariff opening: coffee (premium, branded, traceable—playing to Indian origin appeal), cashews (specialty and organic production gaining traction), and seafood (value-add processing gaining competitive advantage). These three segments account for approximately 75% of the new export value created in the first post-TEPA quarter.

Traditional industrial exports—already duty-free under Most Favored Nation status—show minimal uplift, confirming that TEPA's real windfall targets agricultural and processed-food suppliers who faced tariff walls before October 2025. Under TEPA, EFTA has offered improved market access on 92.2 per cent of its tariff lines, covering 99.6 per cent of India's exports, along with tariff concessions on processed agricultural products.

The trajectory is set. With commodity-level tariffs eliminated and price competition stabilizing around sustainable margins, Indian exporters in these sectors are now building long-term customer relationships with Swiss and Norwegian buyers rather than spot-trading at commodity prices. The next 18 months will determine whether this early spike represents permanent market-share capture or a first-mover anomaly as traditional competitors adjust to the new tariff architecture.