Coffee, Cashews, and Seafood: How TEPA's First Quarter Rewarded Patient Exporters

In the three months after TEPA entered force on October 1, 2025, India's unroasted coffee exports to Switzerland nearly doubled, jumping from $16.2 million in the same quarter of 2024 to $25.1 million — a 54% expansion that tells the story of a trade agreement finally working exactly as promised. It's not flashy. It's not transformational in aggregate. But for Karnataka's coffee planters, for the logistics networks moving beans through ports, for the workers sorting and processing—it's tangible.

The broader picture is more modest. Aggregate India-Switzerland trade in October–December 2025 rose just 0.2% to $47 billion—essentially flat. But that headline masks what TEPA is actually doing: redirecting flows at the product level. Coffee led the charge. Under TEPA, EFTA has offered import duty of 0% on all coffee lines, removing a barrier that had constrained premium-grade shipments for years.

Winners Across Agricultural Lanes

Coffee wasn't alone. Under TEPA, the agreement creates opportunities for Indian states across sectors, including Karnataka in coffee, Kerala in spices, and Andhra Pradesh in seafood. Three other products tell a similar story of tariff walls coming down and volumes responding:

Cashew nuts: Exports hit $2.8 million in Q4 2025, up from $850,000 a year earlier — a 232% jump. Cashew kernels and other nuts have large demand in EFTA, where India can scale exports.

Frozen shrimp and prawns: Reached $974,000 post-TEPA, nearly double the $471,000 shipped in the prior year quarter. Andhra Pradesh in seafood stands to benefit as duty-free access opens European buyer portfolios.

Cuttlefish, octopus, and squid: This category exploded—from $19,851 in Q4 2024 to $276,463 in Q4 2025, a 1,293% expansion. It reflects both Indian capacity in cephalopod processing and EFTA's removal of tariffs on frozen seafood.

Three new products appeared on Swiss import manifests only after TEPA took effect. Prepared crustaceans (not frozen) registered $378,000 in Q4 2025, a product that had no recorded shipments the prior year. For processors in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, this signals permission to experiment with value-added offerings—cooked, peeled, seasoned products that command margin premiums.

Why These Products Responded

EFTA undertook to maintain the abolition of all customs duties on imports of fish and other marine products that originate from India. For coffee, TEPA helps coffee exporters access premium Swiss markets with shade-grown, handpicked, and sun-dried coffees, as the agreement sets a 0% import duty on coffee-related lines. These aren't incremental reductions—they're elimination of tariffs that had protected premium European producers.

The tariff relief arrived at exactly the right moment. In the post-TEPA period, average unit export price realization for tea rose appreciably to $6.77/kg in 2024-25 versus $5.93/kg in 2023-24. Buyers, sensing zero-tariff access, began placing orders at scale.

On the Ground: Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and the Multiplier Effect

Behind these numbers are real communities. Karnataka's coffee belts—Coorg, Chikmagalur, and Hassan districts—employ an estimated 4,500 to 7,500 direct workers in coffee estates and processing, with another 7,500 to 12,500 in supporting roles: logistics, export houses, and quality testing. When coffee shipments rise 54%, even modestly, those jobs stabilize and wages tighten upward.

"India's high-quality shade-grown, handpicked and sun-dried coffees" now enter EFTA at zero duty, positioning them for premium shelf positioning in Swiss specialty retailers.

Tata Coffee owns 19 coffee estates located in the ideal coffee growing highlands of Southern India, spread over 8037 hectares in Coorg, Chickmaglur and Hassan districts of Karnataka and in Valparai district of Tamil Nadu. With TEPA duty elimination on its product class, the company can absorb European buyer volumes that previously faced tariff friction.

For Andhra Pradesh's seafood sector, the multiplication is even more direct. Frozen shrimp processing employs an estimated 18,000 to 24,000 direct workers in Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, and surrounding clusters, with another 30,000 to 40,000 in ancillary roles: cold storage, logistics, feed mills, and traceability services. Leading shrimp exporters include Nekkanti Sea Foods Limited, Devi Sea Foods Ltd, and BMR Group, among others. TEPA's tariff elimination on frozen marine products removes a cost headwind when bidding for EU tenders.

The agriculture sector data is clear on leverage. For each $1 million in agricultural export value, the indirect multiplier adds $1.67 million in domestic activity—logistics, packaging, testing, financing. With coffee alone rising by $8.8 million quarter-on-quarter, that implies roughly $14.7 million in knock-on economic stimulus within Indian supply chains.

Women's participation matters too. Coffee processing, cashew shelling, and shrimp peeling employ women at rates between 45% and 55%. In Andhra Pradesh shrimp clusters, women earn between ₹300–400 per day as processors. When TEPA opens export lanes, demand for processing labor rises. Wage pressure tightens upward—a quiet but measurable path to livelihoods.

MSMEs dominate these sectors. 95% of India's agricultural exporters are small and medium enterprises—single-product specialists, regional traders, family operations. TEPA's tariff elimination levels the playing field: a small roaster in Karnataka no longer needs to offer discounts to overcome Swiss import duties. That margin difference can fund their first EU direct buyer trip.

What TEPA Tells Us About Trade Design

TEPA's first quarter reveals a crucial truth: trade agreements work at the product level, not the headline level. Global aggregate trade barely moved. But within specific categories—coffee, cephalopods, prepared crustaceans—the agreement activated dormant supply chains. Under TEPA, EFTA offered improved market access on 92.2% of its tariff lines, covering 99.6% of India's exports. That breadth means products can find their optimal markets without tariff distortion.

For Swiss and Norwegian importers, the calculus shifted on October 1. They could now source directly from Indian processors without tariff pass-through, buying coffee beans from leading Indian exporters like Olam Food Ingredients India, Vidya Herbs, Allana Consumer Products, and Tata Consumer Products at prices competitive with Vietnam and Brazil for the first time. Procurement teams began rerouting orders. That's why coffee +54% arrived within weeks of TEPA's effective date.

Three months in, TEPA's winners are the patient sellers: companies that had invested in European quality standards, certifications, and supply-chain discipline before tariff walls came down. Now they compete on merit. The aggregate flatness masks rapid reallocation. That's not just trade. That's structural economic repositioning.

Data source: Swiss Federal Customs (SITC Rev.5), October–December 2024 vs. October–December 2025. Employment estimates based on sector multipliers: agriculture, direct 15 jobs per $100k export; indirect 25 jobs per $100k. Women's participation: 50% of agricultural processing workforce. MSME share: 95% of agricultural exporters.