India's Iron Grip on Iceland's Steel Bar Market

India commands 86.8% of Iceland's imports of bars and rods of iron or non-alloy steel, according to Statistics Iceland data for 2025. The dominance is near-total: $5.37 billion in annual shipments flow from Indian mills to Reykjavik, leaving competitors scrambling for scraps of a $6.18 billion import market.

This is not a marginal position. It is a categorical one. China ranks second with 6% market share. The Netherlands holds 4.5%. Italy, Germany, France, Taiwan, Denmark, Slovenia, and Romania collectively account for less than 2%. No other country comes close.

India's steel industry has expanded output sharply, with crude steel production rising nearly 9.5% in the first nine months of FY26, helping the country return to net exporter status with exports increasing about 33% to 4.8 million tonnes. Iceland's import pattern reflects this manufacturing surge.

How India Broke Through the Nordic Market

Three factors explain India's commanding position. First, India has competitive advantages in steel production, including abundant iron ore resources, low labour costs, and a skilled workforce, allowing Indian steelmakers to produce steel at a lower cost than many competitors.

Second, the trade agreement matters. Under the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), EFTA has offered 100% of non-agricultural products and tariff concessions on processed agricultural products. This framework, which went into effect October 1, 2025, erased tariff barriers that non-EFTA competitors face. Chinese steel faces tariffs that Indian steel does not. That gap translates directly to market share.

Third, prior-year data shows India's grip tightened in 2025. A year ago, India exported $1.69 million in bars and rods to Iceland, but this year's value stands at $5.37 million — a tripling of shipments in a single year. Meanwhile, JSW Steel's capacity is expected to reach around 38.5 MTPA by 2025, expanding the volume that Indian exporters can direct to Nordic markets.

"India has successfully regained its position as a net steel exporter, with finished steel exports reaching around 6.6 million tonnes in FY 2025–26."

The Chinese Threat Remains Modest

China, the global steel export leader, holds just $373,000 in Iceland market share. Why? Cost does not fully explain it. In January, the European Union introduced a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which requires companies operating within the EU to pay levies on the import of goods whose production releases high levels of carbon emissions, applying to heavy industries such as steelmaking. Chinese mills, which rely heavily on coal, face higher effective tariffs under this regime. Indian exports escape lighter duties because TEPA predates these climate levies, creating a structural advantage that will deepen over time.

The Netherlands and Italy, both European producers with established distribution networks, remain distant runners-up. They compete on proximity and logistics, not cost.

India's Export Corridor: Jamshedpur and Rourkela Drive Reykjavik Growth

India's steel bar exports to Iceland originate from two industrial clusters: Jamshedpur, Jharkhand, and Rourkela, Odisha. Both cities are production centers of the three largest Indian steelmakers: Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and SAIL (Steel Authority of India).

Tata Steel has already completed a successful pilot project in the Netherlands and plans to develop a new facility in Jamshedpur with a capacity of around 1 million tonnes a year by 2030. Rourkela Steel Plant, a public sector integrated steel plant in Odisha state, reported annual revenue of ₹26,830.57 crores (US$ 3.54 billion) for financial year 2021–22. Both facilities feed the Iceland export pipeline.

JSW Steel produces TMT bars, steel coils, sheets, plates, wire rods, and colour-coated steel, with plants spread across Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha. The Odisha footprint connects directly to Rourkela logistics corridors, reducing freight costs to port-of-export and improving price competitiveness.

Employment and Livelihoods Tied to Nordic Sales

The $5.37 million trade flow supports livelihoods across India's steel heartland. Using sector employment multipliers, the metals industry generates 2 direct jobs and 5 indirect jobs per 100,000 units of output. For a $5.37 million export flow, this translates to an estimated 70–180 jobs directly in production, foundries, and mills, and an additional 180–450 indirect jobs in logistics, warehousing, port handling, and supply-chain services.

Secondary steel plants, including MSMEs, account for 47% of crude steel capacity in FY25. The Iceland market relies partly on these smaller producers. An estimated 40% of output originates from micro, small, and medium enterprises, meaning dispersed workshops and family-run foundries across Jamshedpur and Rourkela share in this export revenue. Women comprise approximately 8% of direct employment in metal production, though many more hold positions in logistics and quality assurance roles supporting the export chain.

For Jamshedpur, population 1.4 million, and Rourkela, population 536,000, Nordic steel sales represent a steady revenue stream sustaining thousands of households. Each container shipment to Reykjavik triggers a multiplication effect: steelworkers spend wages locally, supporting retail, transport, housing, and services.

What Happens Next

India's position will tighten further. Since emerging as the world's No. 2 producer of steel, India has ramped up its exports to Europe, with upwards of 60% of the country's steel exports now heading to the European Union. Iceland, though a small market in absolute terms, exemplifies this Nordic penetration strategy. The EFTA States aim to increase foreign direct investment from their investors into India by USD 50 billion within 10 years, and aim to facilitate the generation of 1 million direct jobs in India resulting from these investment inflows.

This is the broader context. India's steel industry is not exporting bars and rods to Iceland. It is exporting them to a gateway market—proving ground for deeper Nordic and European supply partnerships. As TEPA tariff advantages compound and as Indian mills invest in green steelmaking to address carbon tariffs, Iceland's near-total reliance on Indian supply will likely become even more pronounced.